Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Thu Jun 18 17:33:50 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So house effects are now *mostly* calculated *within* states. I realize that this is a geeky technical point, but it makes a pretty big difference as far as accuracy goes. It gives local pollsters a proper amount of influence in the average. Local pollsters are often pretty good. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We've found that it can be a mistake to apply house effects too aggressively **across states**. Basically what happens is that only prolific pollsters that survey across lots of states wind up having much of a say in your average and the influence of local pollsters is reduced. https://t.co/Ht3h3gw9Fz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Finally, we calculate a "timeline adjustment". Basically, this adjusts old polls based on trends in national polls and polls of similar states. (so, e.g. Wisconsin polls will have an influence on the timeline adjustment in Michigan polls, but Hawaii polls won't). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated