Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Thu Jun 18 17:31:42 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We've found that it can be a mistake to apply house effects too aggressively **across states**. Basically what happens is that only prolific pollsters that survey across lots of states wind up having much of a say in your average and the influence of local pollsters is reduced. https://t.co/Ht3h3gw9Fz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Next, there's a house effects adjustment. If polls consistently show good results for one candidate (i.e. a pollster always shows Biden doing 5 points better than other polls of the same state), then part of that house effect is corrected for. However, one needs to be careful... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So house effects are now *mostly* calculated *within* states. I realize that this is a geeky technical point, but it makes a pretty big difference as far as accuracy goes. It gives local pollsters a proper amount of influence in the average. Local pollsters are often pretty good. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated