Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Thu Jun 18 17:39:31 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The timeline adjustment helps a *lot* in giving you an accurate picture of the race at any given time, especially pre-Labor Day when polling is sporadic. Note, however, that there are still going to be states where there isn't much polling or the polls are of mixed quality. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This means our averages can move *even there hasn't been new polling in a state*. Here's Nevada, for instance, where there's little recent polling but the algorithm is making inferences based on changes in national polls, Arizona and Colorado polls, etc. https://t.co/nLrpwNdA0m https://t.co/5bscmBRWKN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Right now, for instance, Biden is up 10 points in MI but 5 points in PA. I'm not sure I buy that they're really that different, or even that MI is necessarily the better state for Biden. But MI polling is often weird, and there hasn't been much high-quality PA polling lately. https://t.co/Waxnyug2r9 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated