Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Mon Jun 15 19:31:38 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe also noteworthy that Trump has lost ground more than Biden has gained it. There may be some R-leaning voters who are just fed up with things right now but could come back to Trump later. Then again, Biden is >=50% right now, whereas Clinton peaked at 46% in national polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So it's not like the race has actually swung *that* much. But 4 points vs. 8 points is sort of an inflection point where you go from "whoa, the Electoral College could still be close" to "whoa, Biden up everywhere". But things could easily enough swing back in Trump's direction. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Elasticity ratings for 2020! Elasticity scores reflect how much a state’s polls would be expected to change based on a change in national. e.g. if Idaho’s elasticity score is 1.1, a 5-point swing in national polls would be expected to produce a 1.1 x 5 = 5.5-point swing in Idaho. https://t.co/9BIk53SsSw — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 15, 2020 Hibernated