Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Mon Jun 15 19:27:36 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So it's not like the race has actually swung *that* much. But 4 points vs. 8 points is sort of an inflection point where you go from "whoa, the Electoral College could still be close" to "whoa, Biden up everywhere". But things could easily enough swing back in Trump's direction. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our (soon-to-be-published) national polling average over time: March 1: Biden 49.7, Trump 45.6 (+4.1) Apri 1: Biden 49.2, Trump 43.1 (+6.1) May 1: Biden 49.5, Trump 43.4 (+6.1) June 1: Biden 49.2, Trump 42.9 (+6.3) June 15 (today): Biden 50.2, Trump 42.1 (+8.1) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe also noteworthy that Trump has lost ground more than Biden has gained it. There may be some R-leaning voters who are just fed up with things right now but could come back to Trump later. Then again, Biden is >=50% right now, whereas Clinton peaked at 46% in national polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 15, 2020 Hibernated