Tweet by @NateSilver538

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I guess one thing that really stands out here is that it doesn't take that much to go from a massive Biden Electoral College landslide (if he wins everywhere on the list below, that's 413 EV) to a narrow Biden loss (he's only ahead 3.7 points in the tipping-point state). — PolitiTweet.org

National: Biden +7.6 CO: Biden +15.6 ME: Biden +12.4 VA: Biden +9.5 MI: Biden +8.2 NE-2: Biden +7.4 NH: Biden +6.6… https://t.co/t1bObHzdt5

Posted June 13, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The tipping-point state here would be PA, where there's been a real lack of high-quality polling for the past couple months. I doubt that Biden is actually ahead by 8 in MI and 6 in WI but only 3-4 in PA. But, that's what the polls show if you don't blend them with priors. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 13, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro @mattyglesias These averages contain a trendline adjustment (i.e. it adjusts old polls based on what's happening in national polls and polls of similar states). So stale isn't an issue per se. It's more just that there isn't a ton of recent polling in PA, so the estimate is a bit noisy. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 13, 2020 Hibernated