Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Sat Jun 13 14:27:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The tipping-point state here would be PA, where there's been a real lack of high-quality polling for the past couple months. I doubt that Biden is actually ahead by 8 in MI and 6 in WI but only 3-4 in PA. But, that's what the polls show if you don't blend them with priors. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

National: Biden +7.6 CO: Biden +15.6 ME: Biden +12.4 VA: Biden +9.5 MI: Biden +8.2 NE-2: Biden +7.4 NH: Biden +6.6 WI: Biden +5.9 NV: Biden +5.7 MN: Biden +5.5 PA: Biden +3.7 AZ: Biden +3.6 FL: Biden +3.5 NC: Biden +2.0 OH: Biden +1.6 GA: TIE TX: Trump +1.4 IA: Trump +1.6 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I guess one thing that really stands out here is that it doesn't take that much to go from a massive Biden Electoral College landslide (if he wins everywhere on the list below, that's 413 EV) to a narrow Biden loss (he's only ahead 3.7 points in the tipping-point state). — PolitiTweet.org

National: Biden +7.6 CO: Biden +15.6 ME: Biden +12.4 VA: Biden +9.5 MI: Biden +8.2 NE-2: Biden +7.4 NH: Biden +6.6… https://t.co/t1bObHzdt5

Posted June 13, 2020 Hibernated