Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Tue May 26 14:24:17 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The best strategy is therefore to use a broad basket of economic indicators over a broad range of time horizons. By that measure, voters' assessments of the economy would likely still be fairly negative on balance by November even with a haflway recovery. https://t.co/5WOUCIoGNe — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And to an extent this is an intractable question because we don't have a large enough sample of presidential elections to know exactly (or even all that precisely) how voters evaluate the economy. Models that claim some particular indicator is supreme are bad/p-hacked/overfit. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If anything, being strictly empirical might push you toward assuming that voters' perceptions of the economy are somewhat lagging, e.g. Bush didn't get any credit for the improving economy in 1992, but again these findings are based on small samples. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2020 Hibernated