Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Tue May 26 14:22:05 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And to an extent this is an intractable question because we don't have a large enough sample of presidential elections to know exactly (or even all that precisely) how voters evaluate the economy. Models that claim some particular indicator is supreme are bad/p-hacked/overfit. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's true that a partial recovery to 9% would be better for Trump than getting stuck at 15%. But 9% is still quite high, and voters could also compare to 3.5% or wherever it had been before. The literature on what time horizon voters use to evaluate the economy is not very clear. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The best strategy is therefore to use a broad basket of economic indicators over a broad range of time horizons. By that measure, voters' assessments of the economy would likely still be fairly negative on balance by November even with a haflway recovery. https://t.co/5WOUCIoGNe — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2020 Hibernated