Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Tue May 26 14:22:05 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's true that a partial recovery to 9% would be better for Trump than getting stuck at 15%. But 9% is still quite high, and voters could also compare to 3.5% or wherever it had been before. The literature on what time horizon voters use to evaluate the economy is not very clear. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, Democrats are worried that a partial, V- or check-shaped recovery (e.g. unemployment goes from 3.5% pre-covid to 15% mid-covid to 9% by November) will help Trump. I tend to think this is somewhat misguided, empirically. https://t.co/Xke9uP3Ax8 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And to an extent this is an intractable question because we don't have a large enough sample of presidential elections to know exactly (or even all that precisely) how voters evaluate the economy. Models that claim some particular indicator is supreme are bad/p-hacked/overfit. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2020 Hibernated