Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Tue May 26 14:26:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If anything, being strictly empirical might push you toward assuming that voters' perceptions of the economy are somewhat lagging, e.g. Bush didn't get any credit for the improving economy in 1992, but again these findings are based on small samples. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The best strategy is therefore to use a broad basket of economic indicators over a broad range of time horizons. By that measure, voters' assessments of the economy would likely still be fairly negative on balance by November even with a haflway recovery. https://t.co/5WOUCIoGNe — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ernietedeschi Right, and am saying despite those headlines, Trump will likely be worse off with a -40% (annualized) in Q2 and a +21.5% in Q3 versus if both quarters had been 2.5%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2020 Hibernated