Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Mon May 25 16:35:16 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How could you get there? If states are willing to maintain enough social distancing to prevent R from being >1, but not more. So they'll try to prevent *increases*, but they'll tolerate plateaus. Some states (e.g. NY) explicitly have a policy of trying to keep R <=1, in fact. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 25, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm uncertain about a lot of things re: what will happen in the US on COVID. But some of the models show the chance of a long plateau... i.e. once we get down to ~1,000 deaths/day, we might stay there for a while. That seems plausible to me. https://t.co/Qxu8rSPoV1 https://t.co/ZVlUvzdzJL — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 25, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, because there are lags between policy and behavioral changes and the data, there's the risk of miscalculation. You think you're managing R to 1 but ... oops, turns out it's 1.5! The risk I worry most about comes in the fall if there are strong weather-related effects. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 25, 2020 Hibernated