Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Mon May 25 16:24:39 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm uncertain about a lot of things re: what will happen in the US on COVID. But some of the models show the chance of a long plateau... i.e. once we get down to ~1,000 deaths/day, we might stay there for a while. That seems plausible to me. https://t.co/Qxu8rSPoV1 https://t.co/ZVlUvzdzJL — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 25, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Whether a state is technically "open" doesn't seem to matter much in predicting driving mobility. I'd previously found the number of COVID deaths in a state was predictive (people staying home more in states with high per-capita death rates) but that effect seems to have faded. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 25, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How could you get there? If states are willing to maintain enough social distancing to prevent R from being >1, but not more. So they'll try to prevent *increases*, but they'll tolerate plateaus. Some states (e.g. NY) explicitly have a policy of trying to keep R <=1, in fact. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 25, 2020 Hibernated