Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Wed May 20 14:19:16 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Put another way, after a polling "miss", there is the risk of under-compensation (you change nothing make the same mistakes as last time) or of overcompensation (you change things that were working fine and introduce bias in the other direction). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Keep in mind that pollsters actually *underestimated* Clinton in some states (e.g. CA, AZ) in 2016. And that there was little overall bias in 2018, with errors running in different directions in different states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Empirically, these are about equally likely. That is, the direction of polling bias in one election year is not at all predictive of the direction of bias in the next year. You could have a R bias and then a big D bias four years later, for instance. https://t.co/ees0U6j4L7 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2020 Hibernated