Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Wed May 20 14:20:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Empirically, these are about equally likely. That is, the direction of polling bias in one election year is not at all predictive of the direction of bias in the next year. You could have a R bias and then a big D bias four years later, for instance. https://t.co/ees0U6j4L7 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Put another way, after a polling "miss", there is the risk of under-compensation (you change nothing make the same mistakes as last time) or of overcompensation (you change things that were working fine and introduce bias in the other direction). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A good example of overcompensation is the 2017 UK election, where after several years of a pro-Labour bias, pollsters started doing some *really* dodgy things to basically just slant their results toward Conservatives and wound up way low on Labour. https://t.co/GTjBmg9OjD — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2020 Hibernated