Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

Created

Tue May 19 01:47:28 +0000 2020

Likes

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias There's also interregional variability. If dense urban areas have a much higher R0 and also cases so far are concentrated disproportionately in dense urban areas, then ~5% national seroprevalence could go slightly further than you'd think. It's probably not a huge effect, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With that said, there will come a point at which some folks may need to re-examine their priors. Are we there yet? I'd say "no". But I also don't think it's a bright line. A better approach might be to have relatively weak/flexible priors and accept a high degree of uncertainty. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One plausible future is that small-scale stuff (restaurants, parks, gyms, retail) doesn't actually cause *that* much spread but large-scale stuff (colleges, work, travel, mass gatherings) does, and people make incorrect inferences about the large stuff if the small stuff goes OK. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated