Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Tue May 19 02:46:58 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One plausible future is that small-scale stuff (restaurants, parks, gyms, retail) doesn't actually cause *that* much spread but large-scale stuff (colleges, work, travel, mass gatherings) does, and people make incorrect inferences about the large stuff if the small stuff goes OK. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias There's also interregional variability. If dense urban areas have a much higher R0 and also cases so far are concentrated disproportionately in dense urban areas, then ~5% national seroprevalence could go slightly further than you'd think. It's probably not a huge effect, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris "Entirely" is tricky because cases may be declining, but less quickly than they would be without the reopening. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated