Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Mon May 18 21:28:25 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With that said, there will come a point at which some folks may need to re-examine their priors. Are we there yet? I'd say "no". But I also don't think it's a bright line. A better approach might be to have relatively weak/flexible priors and accept a high degree of uncertainty. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Remember, all these data series are lagging, so we're always looking a couple of weeks into the past. If there are recent changes that have made things worse (i.e. less distancing) they may not be showing up in the data yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias There's also interregional variability. If dense urban areas have a much higher R0 and also cases so far are concentrated disproportionately in dense urban areas, then ~5% national seroprevalence could go slightly further than you'd think. It's probably not a huge effect, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated