Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 2, 2020

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Sun May 17 18:42:56 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2. The next major category is not accounting enough for uncertainty. I actually think the experts have done a very good job of accounting for the major traits of COVID-19, especially if you (literally) read the fine print on what they were saying rather through the media filter. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of other quirks in reporting. The data is proceeded by humans; it doesn't appear automatically. Lags are unavoidable, but some data series are more lagging than others. Many places have "lumpy" data, i.e. they report data in batches rather than in a steady flow. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But it's a new disease! there's a lot we don't know! The experts are learning as they go! While there are some places where we should have relatively strong priors, in general experts need space to revise their conclusions and the media should be attentive to those revisions... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 17, 2020 Hibernated