Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 22, 2020

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Tue May 05 02:37:53 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @No_Little_Plans @jaycaspiankang @canzhiye @PlusEVAnalytics I think an underrated dynamic here is the quality/speed trade-off. True subject-matter experts tend to be i) meticulous, but meticulousness takes time and ii) face more reputational risk, which may make them more deliberate about weighing in. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickKristof Yeah, that makes sense. It does seem like you can put slightly less weight on some of the extreme tail outcomes in both directions. Certainly many of the positive tails, though maybe some of the negative tails, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @No_Little_Plans @jaycaspiankang @canzhiye @PlusEVAnalytics Yeah, they were filling a vacuum. I think they were doing a lot of the back-of-the-envelope stuff that a lot of people were doing in terms of figuring out when cases might peak. I don't think they thought enough, obviously, about what the other side of the curve would look like. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated