Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 22, 2020

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Tue May 05 02:25:51 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickKristof Yeah, that makes sense. It does seem like you can put slightly less weight on some of the extreme tail outcomes in both directions. Certainly many of the positive tails, though maybe some of the negative tails, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickKristof I find it hard to be a good news consumer on vaccines and therapies. I know to take a default position that any one early-stage candidate is unlikely to pan out. But I don't have a good sense for whether overall it's going better or worse than experts expected. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @No_Little_Plans @jaycaspiankang @canzhiye @PlusEVAnalytics I think an underrated dynamic here is the quality/speed trade-off. True subject-matter experts tend to be i) meticulous, but meticulousness takes time and ii) face more reputational risk, which may make them more deliberate about weighing in. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated