Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 22, 2020

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Tue May 05 02:07:59 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickKristof I find it hard to be a good news consumer on vaccines and therapies. I know to take a default position that any one early-stage candidate is unlikely to pan out. But I don't have a good sense for whether overall it's going better or worse than experts expected. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickKristof Yeah, that seems right. I'm a little less hopeful about seasonality (though it may have *some* effects) and a little less worried about immunity (though it may be quite complicated and there are some downside risks) than I was a month or so ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickKristof Yeah, that makes sense. It does seem like you can put slightly less weight on some of the extreme tail outcomes in both directions. Certainly many of the positive tails, though maybe some of the negative tails, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated