Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 22, 2020

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Tue May 05 02:47:59 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @No_Little_Plans @jaycaspiankang @canzhiye @PlusEVAnalytics Yeah, they were filling a vacuum. I think they were doing a lot of the back-of-the-envelope stuff that a lot of people were doing in terms of figuring out when cases might peak. I don't think they thought enough, obviously, about what the other side of the curve would look like. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @No_Little_Plans @jaycaspiankang @canzhiye @PlusEVAnalytics I think an underrated dynamic here is the quality/speed trade-off. True subject-matter experts tend to be i) meticulous, but meticulousness takes time and ii) face more reputational risk, which may make them more deliberate about weighing in. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @No_Little_Plans @jaycaspiankang @canzhiye @PlusEVAnalytics There was also a lot of the COVID-will-completely-overwhelm-the-American-health-care-system takes at the time, with models that assumed essentially no social distancing and huge peaks into May/June still being treated as base-case scenarios. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated