Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 22, 2020

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Tue May 05 00:27:48 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. This would suggest the decline in social distancing from where it was just after lockdown to where it is now will raise R by something like 0.1. That's not *that* much. But since we were barely (if at all) reducing cases before, it could be enough to matter. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, there may also be some effects from partial herd immunity in edge cases, e.g. cases are falling faster than the model thinks they "should" be falling in NY. This effect is likely to be negligible for most of the country, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Plus, distancing will likely erode further. I don't think people should *necessarily* expect to see an *explosion* of new cases. It may lead to a long plateau at high numbers, though. Maybe we get lucky and weather offsets some of this, although then there are problems in fall. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated