Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 22, 2020

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Mon May 04 23:55:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, there may also be some effects from partial herd immunity in edge cases, e.g. cases are falling faster than the model thinks they "should" be falling in NY. This effect is likely to be negligible for most of the country, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

R's are estimated using the technique described here and attempt to account for the number of tests. They reflect a median of the previous 4 weeks, which should capture the post-lockdown period fairly well. https://t.co/7CxfmiXPWZ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. This would suggest the decline in social distancing from where it was just after lockdown to where it is now will raise R by something like 0.1. That's not *that* much. But since we were barely (if at all) reducing cases before, it could be enough to matter. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated