Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 22, 2020

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Tue May 05 00:30:05 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Plus, distancing will likely erode further. I don't think people should *necessarily* expect to see an *explosion* of new cases. It may lead to a long plateau at high numbers, though. Maybe we get lucky and weather offsets some of this, although then there are problems in fall. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. This would suggest the decline in social distancing from where it was just after lockdown to where it is now will raise R by something like 0.1. That's not *that* much. But since we were barely (if at all) reducing cases before, it could be enough to matter. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another spin on this: if we had ways OTHER than social distancing to lower R (test/trace/isolate/etc), we could perhaps reduce social distancing quite a bit, so long as people were generally being prudent and we tackled some of the low-hanging fruit (e.g. avoid mass gatherings). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated