Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 12, 2020

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Tue Apr 28 17:09:43 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We do have better data now on what % of infections result in hospitalizations. That can help to design better policy, also. In NY (both NYC and Upstate) about 2% of *infections* (*not* known cases) have produced hospitalizations if you believe the state's seroprevalence numbers. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think Cuomo/NY deserve a lot of credit for explicitly saying what the policy is and attaching concrete benchmarks to it. Note also that there are actually 2 constraints, that pertain to both the growth rate and the level: R must be <1.1 and hospitals/ICUs must be <70% capacity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thecity2 @kmedved I don't think many places apart from Sweden are treating herd immunity as inevitable. That is, they want to get the overall number of cases low enough that even if you spread at R=1.0/1.1 from there, it would take a long time and hopefully you get treatments/vaccines before then. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2020 Hibernated