Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 12, 2020

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Mon Apr 27 18:11:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At appears that on average, it takes about 6 days for a death to occur before it shows up in the "confirmed" column. That's an average, though; there's a long tail of deaths they're counting that actually occurred weeks ago. Probable deaths can often catch these sooner. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The further back you go, the more likely a death is to be confirmed instead of probable. Around 80% of (confirmed + probable) deaths that occurred in March were confirmed, for instance. But only ~50% of deaths to occur in the past 5 days are confirmed. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On a typical day in NYC, something like 10% of newly-reported *confirmed* deaths actually occurred 2 or more weeks ago. I doubt NYC is alone in this regard. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 27, 2020 Hibernated