Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 2, 2020

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Sat Apr 18 14:07:21 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Testing capacity probably varies by something like 10x across different major Western countries. It also probably varies by something like 3x-5x across different US states. So you could easily have some places that are detecting 1.5% of their infections, and some that detect 15%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Taken as a whole, those studies seem to suggest it's possible—but hardly certain—that the ratio of total infections to detected cases is higher than the ~10x ratio commonly cited. But the thing is there's not just going to be one universal ratio; it will vary from place to place. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This seems like an under-discussed point re: reopening. You probably want to get the overall caseload down by keeping strict-ish current measures in place longer, so that if cases start growing again (or even remain flat, i.e. an R around ~1) it's from a lower baseline. — PolitiTweet.org

This is one of the big dangers in easing restrictions too early: Since there are still a significant number of infe… https://t.co/ZBt97mvGpQ

Posted April 18, 2020 Hibernated