Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 2, 2020

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Sat Apr 18 14:04:38 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are at least ~a dozen studies already that attempt to measure seroprevalence (how many people were infected) for COVID-19 in various parts of the world. Will likely be dozens more in a few weeks. I'm seeing analysis of e.g. the Santa Clara Co study that take it in a vacuum. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OK, here's one fairly explicit comparison to the polling world. It's usually going to be better to do a meta-analysis of all studies, including thinking about biases that could systematically affect all of them, than to spend a huge amount of energy picking apart any one study. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Taken as a whole, those studies seem to suggest it's possible—but hardly certain—that the ratio of total infections to detected cases is higher than the ~10x ratio commonly cited. But the thing is there's not just going to be one universal ratio; it will vary from place to place. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 18, 2020 Hibernated