Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Oct. 2, 2020

Created

Fri Apr 17 13:55:09 +0000 2020

Likes

219

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But unless you've built a model that *updates in real time*, I think it's easy to *underestimate* how much a well-designed model *should* change—certainly not all the time, but in response to high-leverage data. Most experts' intuitions are a bit miscalibrated here. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My default answer is "sparingly; you should avoid it". But I'm working in fields (i.e. electoral politics) where the structures are well-established going in. I am perhaps more sympathetic to structural changes with something like COVID-19 where we're all learning in real time. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This can be defined mathematically: you want to design a model as to minimize serial correlation. Some experts prefer forecasts that change only gradually so they won't get criticized for changing their mind. But this intuition is often wrong. More here: https://t.co/0vo0wU4sXa — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Hibernated