Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 2, 2020

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Fri Apr 17 13:49:50 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My default answer is "sparingly; you should avoid it". But I'm working in fields (i.e. electoral politics) where the structures are well-established going in. I am perhaps more sympathetic to structural changes with something like COVID-19 where we're all learning in real time. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another question is: should the structure/parameters/assumptions of the model change as you collect more data? In other words, not just the inputs, but the way you're processing those inputs? And maybe which inputs you're looking at? That's complicated. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But unless you've built a model that *updates in real time*, I think it's easy to *underestimate* how much a well-designed model *should* change—certainly not all the time, but in response to high-leverage data. Most experts' intuitions are a bit miscalibrated here. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Hibernated