Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 2, 2020

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Fri Apr 17 13:49:50 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another question is: should the structure/parameters/assumptions of the model change as you collect more data? In other words, not just the inputs, but the way you're processing those inputs? And maybe which inputs you're looking at? That's complicated. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The death projections in their US model have shifted around within a range of ~60K to ~90K. That strikes me as quite reasonable, under the circumstances. Other things have changed more, i.e. their projections on hospitalizations have decreased by 3x to 5x. That's not great. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My default answer is "sparingly; you should avoid it". But I'm working in fields (i.e. electoral politics) where the structures are well-established going in. I am perhaps more sympathetic to structural changes with something like COVID-19 where we're all learning in real time. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Hibernated