Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 2, 2020

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Fri Apr 17 14:02:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This can be defined mathematically: you want to design a model as to minimize serial correlation. Some experts prefer forecasts that change only gradually so they won't get criticized for changing their mind. But this intuition is often wrong. More here: https://t.co/0vo0wU4sXa — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But unless you've built a model that *updates in real time*, I think it's easy to *underestimate* how much a well-designed model *should* change—certainly not all the time, but in response to high-leverage data. Most experts' intuitions are a bit miscalibrated here. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @micahcohen: 😬 https://t.co/gafQHzeep1 https://t.co/ChxupNZ5fb — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Retweet Hibernated