Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 30, 2020

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Thu Apr 16 22:52:45 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But not on No. 2. There have been days when there were fewer deaths than the previous day. But these may reflect day-of-week effects. Not yet any days when there were fewer deaths than 7 days ago. Once that happens a few times, that's when we can start asking if there's a peak. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The milestones I'm mostly looking at are: 1) Are there fewer cases (and/or a lower share of positives) than the same day a week ago? 2) Are there fewer deaths than the same day a week ago? For question No. 1, the answer is increasingly *yes*. Which is good news. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OK, maybe this is a poorly-framed question. But I have learned to be skeptical of "clinical trial shows promising results!" headlines. What would experts say the benchmarks are for something they'd actually consider to be a development worth getting excited about? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2020 Hibernated