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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 30, 2020

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Thu Apr 16 19:54:02 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Per my back-of-envelope, possibly a *bit* lower than that if you look at the share of positive tests in Italy. But, yeah, maybe not a lot lower, meaning there may not be a ton of margin for error in re-opening stuff unless other factors reduce the spread. Same issue in NYC. — PolitiTweet.org

Pat Bayer @PatBayerNC

My rough back-of-envelope calcs. suggest that relatively flat decline in deaths in Italy post-peak implies that str… https://t.co/ponryddsrb

Posted April 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In this story, there's lots of reporting on Sanders-friendly groups and people who *do* want Warren to be chosen, but the story is framed the opposite way, perhaps because reporters overstate the influence of the Very Online crowd (+drama makes headlines). https://t.co/4SJ73zuJg1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Other factors that seem relevant here: 1) How much herd immunity is there in the very worst affected areas, e.g. Lombardy and NYC? 2) What is the R among different subgroups, i.e. health care workers, other essential workers, rest-of-population? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2020 Hibernated