Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 30, 2020

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Thu Apr 16 19:54:02 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Other factors that seem relevant here: 1) How much herd immunity is there in the very worst affected areas, e.g. Lombardy and NYC? 2) What is the R among different subgroups, i.e. health care workers, other essential workers, rest-of-population? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Per my back-of-envelope, possibly a *bit* lower than that if you look at the share of positive tests in Italy. But, yeah, maybe not a lot lower, meaning there may not be a ton of margin for error in re-opening stuff unless other factors reduce the spread. Same issue in NYC. — PolitiTweet.org

My rough back-of-envelope calcs. suggest that relatively flat decline in deaths in Italy post-peak implies that str… https://t.co/ponryddsrb

Posted April 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But this highlights how we really, really, need more tools than just social distancing, i.e. testing, tracing, screening, and better protocols around infected cases. If you're relying on social distancing alone, you seem to need a lot of it to keep R<1. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2020 Hibernated