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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 30, 2020

Created

Thu Apr 16 17:34:34 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In this story, there's lots of reporting on Sanders-friendly groups and people who *do* want Warren to be chosen, but the story is framed the opposite way, perhaps because reporters overstate the influence of the Very Online crowd (+drama makes headlines). https://t.co/4SJ73zuJg1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Relatedly, the Very Online folks don't have much leverage over Biden because it's not clear what would make them happy, and the things that *might* actually make them happy (but probably not) are things that Biden would likely never consider. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Per my back-of-envelope, possibly a *bit* lower than that if you look at the share of positive tests in Italy. But, yeah, maybe not a lot lower, meaning there may not be a ton of margin for error in re-opening stuff unless other factors reduce the spread. Same issue in NYC. — PolitiTweet.org

Pat Bayer @PatBayerNC

My rough back-of-envelope calcs. suggest that relatively flat decline in deaths in Italy post-peak implies that str… https://t.co/ponryddsrb

Posted April 16, 2020 Hibernated

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