Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 30, 2020

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Wed Apr 15 14:05:32 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Instead, we're seeing signs of asymmetry. In New York, things do look like they're getting noticeably better, but they're not getting better as quickly as they're got worse. Same in Italy; there's a decline in deaths, but it's not particularly symmetric. Spain is more ambiguous. https://t.co/D6B0cGr8Pu — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Thread. It looks like the IHME model is fond of drawing curves that are quite symmetric, i.e. they expect deaths to fall about as fast as they expect them to rise. There's no particular reason to expect this, empirically or theoretically, however. — PolitiTweet.org

29. Now that you know what to look for, you can see the same thing happening in the New York projections. https://t.co/KR2PJOwhV1

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Indeed asymmetry is what you might expect given best guesses about how well social distancing works. Here are curves from Imperial College, for instance, which imagine turning social on & off. Note that they're somewhat asymmetric; cases don't decline quite as fast as they rose. https://t.co/JVFSAlhmCM — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated