Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 22, 2020

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Fri Apr 10 02:01:33 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In practice, this means aiming for an R (reproduction number) a little bit *above* 1. Eventually, enough people have gotten it so that many are immune, which knocks R below 1, and new cases start to fall. This could take several months; the peak will take longer to come. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1) Under one interpretation, you accept it as inevitable that a certain fraction of the population will eventually get COVID-19, until you reach herd immunity. But you want to spread those cases out over a longer period of time. So the disease is still growing but not super fast. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2) Alternatively, "flatten the curve" can just mean "reduce new cases as much as possible" which usually implies more aggressive social distancing/etc. This means getting R *below* 1, if you can, so new cases immediately start to fall. Under this strategy, the peak comes sooner. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2020 Hibernated