Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 22, 2020

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Fri Apr 10 02:01:33 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2) Alternatively, "flatten the curve" can just mean "reduce new cases as much as possible" which usually implies more aggressive social distancing/etc. This means getting R *below* 1, if you can, so new cases immediately start to fall. Under this strategy, the peak comes sooner. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In practice, this means aiming for an R (reproduction number) a little bit *above* 1. Eventually, enough people have gotten it so that many are immune, which knocks R below 1, and new cases start to fall. This could take several months; the peak will take longer to come. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In fact, the peak basically happens whenever you implement the new policy, though it may take time to appear in the data. The catch is that many people are still susceptible (you haven't reached herd immunity) so you could have a *new* peak once you relax the restrictions. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2020 Hibernated