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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 20, 2020

Created

Sun Apr 05 15:01:13 +0000 2020

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177

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12

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Corollary: the more robustly- designed models should work better than the ones that were overfit/p-hacked by, say, only using 2Q GDP instead of a broader range of measures over a longer time frame. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hot take: if the economic election models don't work because of a coronavirus-induced recession that probably means the economic models never worked that well to begin with and were just p-hacked to significance a small sample size. — PolitiTweet.org

G. Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris

I also have a long rant about how economic “fundamentals” models do still apply right now, but you have to account… https://t.co/Vs24LQ46Lj

Posted April 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But the notion that Trump would get a pass on a recession caused by coronavirus while, say Carter wouldn't on one caused by inflation and an energy crisis doesn't seem theoretically sound, especially given the White House's lack of preparedness and initial denial of significance. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 5, 2020 Hibernated

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