Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 4, 2020

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Sun Mar 29 23:05:16 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, that's a national average. Maybe, as of 10 days ago, R0 was 2.1 in Florida, 0.9 in NYC and 0.7 in the SF Bay. The data seems consistent with that. But it's hard to anchor to anything when so many cases are undetected, so it could also be consistent with other theories. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be more precise, my priors are that as of a week or two ago (that's what we're seeing given the lag in the data) there would have been enough social distancing in place to slow but not reverse the spread. (Say, an R0 of ~1.1-1.6). The data seems consistent with that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is interesting reading from @BaldingsWorld world but one issue that if case detection improves over time, which it almost certainly does (i.e. because you ramp up testing), then empirically-derived estimates of R0 from the number of *detected* cases will be overestimated. — PolitiTweet.org

I wrote this about corona. It is very clear the R0 is higher than WHO guidelines and the number of undetected cases… https://t.co/jBTdBYBXmd

Posted March 29, 2020 Hibernated