Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 4, 2020

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Sun Mar 29 22:56:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be more precise, my priors are that as of a week or two ago (that's what we're seeing given the lag in the data) there would have been enough social distancing in place to slow but not reverse the spread. (Say, an R0 of ~1.1-1.6). The data seems consistent with that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Because variation in testing makes it hard to know *exactly* what is happening, it's important to account for one's priors, and IMO those priors should be that there has been a gradual slowdown in new cases as more places have implemented social distancing. — PolitiTweet.org

Same story today. New cases have plateaued but so has testing. Newly detected cases Sun—20,827 Sat—18,821 Fri—18,… https://t.co/FOesO6415w

Posted March 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, that's a national average. Maybe, as of 10 days ago, R0 was 2.1 in Florida, 0.9 in NYC and 0.7 in the SF Bay. The data seems consistent with that. But it's hard to anchor to anything when so many cases are undetected, so it could also be consistent with other theories. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 29, 2020 Hibernated