Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 4, 2020

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Sun Mar 29 22:56:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Because variation in testing makes it hard to know *exactly* what is happening, it's important to account for one's priors, and IMO those priors should be that there has been a gradual slowdown in new cases as more places have implemented social distancing. — PolitiTweet.org

Same story today. New cases have plateaued but so has testing. Newly detected cases Sun—20,827 Sat—18,821 Fri—18,… https://t.co/FOesO6415w

Posted March 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Same story today. New cases have plateaued but so has testing. Newly detected cases Sun—20,827 Sat—18,821 Fri—18,678 Thu—16,807 New tests reported* Sun—95,647 Sat—109,071 Fri—107,295 Thu—97,806 Note: some states do not have reliable test data—CA especially has been weird. — PolitiTweet.org

New detected cases in USA are slightly leveling off over the past 3 days: Sat: 18,821 Fri: 18,678 Thu: 16,797 But… https://t.co/8TKr8mWnDN

Posted March 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be more precise, my priors are that as of a week or two ago (that's what we're seeing given the lag in the data) there would have been enough social distancing in place to slow but not reverse the spread. (Say, an R0 of ~1.1-1.6). The data seems consistent with that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 29, 2020 Hibernated