Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 15, 2020

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Wed Feb 19 17:46:05 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The fact that you can pick up district delegates even in states where you don't get 15% statewide makes it slightly harder for candidates to win by runaway delegate margins. So reintroducing the proper amount of district-by-district variance tends to help "no majority". 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The district-by-district forecasts were also underdispersed. That hurt candidates who projected to get <15% statewide, but who were potentially strong in some districts and thereby could expect to pick up some district delegates. 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My sincere apologies for not catching this sooner. Bugs can happen but I usually have a good eye for when something doesn't look right. Thought the changes were just the model reacting to IA; didn't realize I'd also introduced a problem with the demographic regressions. Shoot. /7 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2020 Hibernated