Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 26, 2020

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Thu Feb 06 15:59:02 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Keep in mind there may be multiple claims to legitimacy: —Delegates —Popular votes —Current national polling spliced in various ways —Claims to have "momentum" from late wins —Claims to be a unity candidate, perhaps bolstered by polling (e.g. favorability ratings) —Best v. Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"A little short" (i.e. Bernie 48%, Candidate X 30%, Candidate Y 20%) means he'd almost certainly get the nomination, I think. I don't know what happens if support is divided like 37/32/26 though or something. — PolitiTweet.org

One thing I think I said in our podcast, but worth repeating: Does anyone think there's a scenario where Sanders go… https://t.co/p2lGnosiyl

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DouthatNYT I think there are basically 3 buckets of questions here: 1) Are there multiple credible claims to having the "will of the electorate"? 2) How much will delegates care about the "will of the electorate" anyway? 3) Who are the delegates and what preferences/biases do they have? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated