Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 26, 2020

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Thu Feb 06 15:54:16 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"A little short" (i.e. Bernie 48%, Candidate X 30%, Candidate Y 20%) means he'd almost certainly get the nomination, I think. I don't know what happens if support is divided like 37/32/26 though or something. — PolitiTweet.org

One thing I think I said in our podcast, but worth repeating: Does anyone think there's a scenario where Sanders go… https://t.co/p2lGnosiyl

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

i.e. you could see a scenario where * Biden ceiling is lowered, but his floor in the South gets him some wins/delegates * Bernie's doing fine but not particularly expanding his coalition * Buttigieg coalition remains narrow/suburban/white * Bloomberg stalls out in low/mid teens — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Keep in mind there may be multiple claims to legitimacy: —Delegates —Popular votes —Current national polling spliced in various ways —Claims to have "momentum" from late wins —Claims to be a unity candidate, perhaps bolstered by polling (e.g. favorability ratings) —Best v. Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated