Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 18, 2020

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Wed Feb 05 00:00:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There certainly *is* a pretty decent chance (at least 20%) of a contested convention and those chances have increased in the past 48 hours. If you think Bloomberg would emerge out of a contested convention (not something our model forecasts), there's a case for optimism there. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Because he's polling at 9% nationally and it's gonna be 40% of the way through the calendar before he can really get any momentum and so the math just don't work to get a majority of delegates even in relatively optimistic scenarios for him. — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 I have enormous respect for your analysis and would like to read a full account of why you're so dis… https://t.co/I6I9b78IcP

Posted Feb. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If Bernie wins SC then Bernie is almost certainly going to win the nomination. If Biden wins SC, then Biden is still alive (perhaps even doing fairly well) at the very least through Super Tuesday, which makes Bloomberg's path to a majority almost impossible. — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 I guess I would be looking for more detail as to why given high levels of undecided voters, a possib… https://t.co/AtSeFSMzbR

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated