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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 18, 2020

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Tue Feb 04 23:59:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Because he's polling at 9% nationally and it's gonna be 40% of the way through the calendar before he can really get any momentum and so the math just don't work to get a majority of delegates even in relatively optimistic scenarios for him. — PolitiTweet.org

Jonathan Chait @jonathanchait

@NateSilver538 I have enormous respect for your analysis and would like to read a full account of why you're so dis… https://t.co/I6I9b78IcP

Posted Feb. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another reason the cable TV pundits fixate on Bloomberg's chances is that pundits don't know how to deal with uncertainty and they can just say "Bloomberg!" to sound smart whenever they're dealing with ambiguities instead of admitting they don't know what's going to happen. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There certainly *is* a pretty decent chance (at least 20%) of a contested convention and those chances have increased in the past 48 hours. If you think Bloomberg would emerge out of a contested convention (not something our model forecasts), there's a case for optimism there. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated